Barbados – May 29, 2025 – The Caribbean is on high alert as the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) forecasts an “above-average” 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with predictions of 19 named storms. This sobering outlook was delivered by Elizabeth Riley, Executive Chairman of the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA), during a press conference yesterday.
According to CIMH’s forecast, nine of the anticipated 19 named storms are expected to escalate into hurricanes, with four potentially reaching major hurricane status. While Colorado State University’s forecast differs slightly with 17 named storms, the consensus points to a highly active season.
The primary driver behind this concerning forecast, as highlighted by Riley, is the unusually warm sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic. “A warm Atlantic fuels hurricane formation, creating a favourable environment for the development of storms,” Riley stated, emphasizing the direct link between rising ocean temperatures and increased hurricane activity. Adding to this, the absence of El Niño conditions further supports the likelihood of an active season.
Riley urged Barbadians and the wider region to prioritize preparedness, underscoring that “it only takes one storm to cause a significant impact.” Despite the inherent uncertainties in long-range forecasts, the message from CDEMA is clear: vigilance and readiness are paramount.
Adding another layer of concern, Dr. Andrea Seeley, Regional Chair of the World Meteorological Organization’s Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, raised alarms about the increasing presence of Saharan dust in the Caribbean. Dr. Seeley noted a noticeable increase in Saharan dust over the past decade, including higher concentrations during the typical dust season.
She specifically referenced the “Godzilla event” of June 2020, which saw unprecedented levels of dust impacting a vast expanse of the Greater Caribbean, extending well into the southern U.S. “Overall, there is a cause for concern, and this will possibly be related to changes in atmospheric patterns, maybe changes at the source region in terms of the amount of desert area you have,” Dr. Seeley explained, calling for more research into these recent changes.
Dr. Seeley also highlighted the significant health implications of Saharan dust, particularly for individuals with respiratory conditions. Research indicates that the majority of particles in Saharan dust are PM 2.5 and PM 10, which can be easily inhaled into the respiratory tract. The smaller PM 2.5 particles can penetrate deeper into the lungs and even enter the bloodstream.
“When you have the Saharan dust incursion, those particles that the health personnel are concerned about, we would have greater concentrations of those that would indicate degraded air quality,” Dr. Seeley warned. She advised the public, especially those with respiratory illnesses, to take necessary precautions to safeguard their health.
As the Caribbean enters a potentially challenging hurricane season, the dual threats of increased storm activity and heightened Saharan dust intrusion underscore the urgent need for comprehensive preparedness and continued research into these evolving environmental phenomena.